So, it’s been a couple weeks of this COVID-19 and things are getting worse. We are seeing businesses close, more people get laid off, and local governments seeing major funding shortfalls. I went live on Facebook a few days ago to share what I thought about unemployment and Nevada real estate.
Unemployment
We are seeing never before numbers in the labor department. Basically, no one has ever seen 3.3 million people file for unemployment all at once. Not even in the Great Recession or Depression!
I do think these numbers will level out as the economy reopens but I think the world as we know it, will change forever.
It seems, people think this will just snap right back to normal and we will all go back to buying and selling real estate like usual… I think this is completely false and I understand I could be wrong, but I have data on my side.
Mom and Pop Landlords
Most rentals are owned by what the industry calls mom and pop shops. This basically means a husband and wife owning two-three properties. They aren’t commercial in the sense they have big investors giving them money to buy 100s of properties.
They most likely bought the first house in 1985 when it was first built. Lived in it and raised a couple kids and used the equity in that home to qualify for another home.
They moved, and now their first home becomes a rental. You get my point. These landlords are probably the most common in our Nevada real estate market.
I guarantee all the properties have some kind of loan and the tenants are paying the loan down as well as providing positive cash flow. Cash flow typically is $200-$600 a month depending on the loan and how much equity they have.
My point here is, if the tenants do not pay the mortgage, the mom and pop landlord cannot pay the mortgage. Unless we suspend mortgage payments the same time we suspend rents, it will be a major issue.
I’m not the only one who sees this happening. Take the Housing Wire article for example. We see governments telling landlords they cannot evict so how are they going to enforce rents?
They are running a small business as well. Owning two or three properties isn’t a walk in the park. Cash flow is king and without it, there will be problems.
What Should The Investor Be Doing Now?
Wait! Please do not overpay for a property that you come to find out you won’t be able to sell. I believe the market is about to see major reductions in price and many people are over leveraged.
Remember those low interest rates on mortgages? Yeah those cash out refinances aren’t looking good when the tenant isn’t paying rent on time.
We, here at The Carson Group are still making offers but we have lowered our price to reflect the shift in the market we are about to see.
I believe you should be hoarding your cash and waiting for quarter 3, so end of summer. This will give the economy enough time to shake out and see what actually happens when businesses reopen.
As we get closer, I will show you what to look for in rentals and how to analyze the deal. We will be partnering with investors to put together a portfolio of several properties when that time comes.
Should You Be Worried?
YES. With 1 in 5 Nevadans not working, the economy has no idea what to do with itself. Are we in a recession? Are we not? I would say no one knows truly what is about to happen, but as a real estate investor, we can prepare for the worst.
I think this is going to get worse before it gets better and the data proves that for every disaster/recession we have ever seen. Remember folks, this is only week two on this craziness. We have a long way to go before positive articles start coming out.
As usual, leave a comment and join the conversation! I want to hear from you guys! How is your business going? What are you doing to get through this time?
